Modelling epidemics,  material

Kurzreports zur aktuellen Lage in D, Herbst 2021 (in German)

Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D, Anfang 2022 (Daten bis 15.01.2022)

Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D, Herbst/Winter 2021/22  (Daten bis 25.12.2021)

Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D, Herbst 2021 (Daten bis 09.12.2021)

Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D, Herbst 2021
(Daten bis 24.11.2021)

Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D, Herbst 2021 (Daten bis 10.11.2021)

Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D, Herbst 2021 (Daten bis 23.09.2021)

Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D, Herbst 2021
(Daten bis 10.09.2021)

einer Absenkung der Zeit zwischen Symptombeginn und Beginn der Quarant\"ane auf den Verlauf von Covid-19


Kreck, M., Scholz, E. 2021. Back to the roots: A discrete Kermack-
McKendrick model adapated to Covid-19. arXiv , accepted by Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.

The adapted KMcK model has been applied for a first analysis of the feasibility of a mass test strategy for containing Covid-19-lie epidemics, proposed in:

Lehrach, H. et al. 2021. Proposal for population-scale genome-based testing for Covid-19.  Submitted to Scientific Reports, preliminary version under. medRxiv .

An early precursor of what we now call adapted KMcK  model was written down in August 2020, after  observing an elevated reproduction rate in Germany (~1.2):

Kreck, M., Scholz, E.. 2020 b. Studying the course of Covid-19 by a recursive delay approach. arXiv

A detailed description of the method for data evaluation and its application for the analysis of the development of Covid-19 in four European countries  and three non-European ones can be found in:

Kreck, M., Scholz, E.. 2020 a. Proposal of a recursive compartment model of epidemics and applications to the Covid-19 pandemic. medRxiv   arXiv


(work edition)

Mathematica 10 notebooks (comments in German), 
executable working versions (.nb), read only (.pdf)

Master notbooks for execution of data retrieval and data evaluation for Germany
(of course the file-path of notebooks called in  command <NotbookEvaluate[...]> need  to be adapted to the local implementation)
executable master notebook
read only (pdf)

Data retrieval and preparation for Germany (can be changed to any country but needs adaptation for the data preparation)
executable  notebook
read only (.pdf)

Central recursion of the model (including alpha mutant and unspecific mass tests)
read only 

Data evaluation for Germany
read only

Mass tests (parameters: beta=  for rate of participation of total population, eta= sensitivity, l= day of infectitivity period at which the test is sensitive
read only