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Modelling
epidemics, material
Kurzreports zur aktuellen Lage in D, Herbst 2021
(in German)
Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D, Anfang
2022 (Daten
bis 15.01.2022)
Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D,
Herbst/Winter 2021/22
(Daten
bis 25.12.2021)
Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D, Herbst
2021 (Daten
bis 09.12.2021)
Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D, Herbst 2021
(Daten
bis 24.11.2021)
Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D, Herbst 2021
(Daten
bis 10.11.2021)
Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D, Herbst
2021 (Daten
bis 23.09.2021)
Entwicklung von Covid-19 in D, Herbst 2021 (Daten
bis 10.09.2021)
Szenario
einer Absenkung der Zeit zwischen
Symptombeginn und Beginn der Quarant\"ane auf
den Verlauf von Covid-19
Papers
Kreck, M., Scholz, E. 2021. Back to the roots:
A discrete Kermack-
McKendrick model adapated to Covid-19.
arXiv
, accepted by Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.
The adapted KMcK model has been applied for a
first analysis of the feasibility of a mass test
strategy for containing Covid-19-lie epidemics,
proposed in:
Lehrach, H. et al. 2021. Proposal for
population-scale genome-based testing for
Covid-19. Submitted to Scientific
Reports, preliminary version under. medRxiv
.
An early precursor of what we now call
adapted KMcK model was written
down in August 2020, after observing an
elevated reproduction rate in Germany (~1.2):
Kreck, M., Scholz, E.. 2020 b. Studying the
course of Covid-19 by a recursive delay
approach. arXiv
A detailed description of the method for data
evaluation and its application for the analysis of
the development of Covid-19 in four European
countries and three non-European ones can be
found in:
Kreck, M., Scholz, E.. 2020 a. Proposal of a
recursive compartment model of epidemics and
applications to the Covid-19 pandemic. medRxiv
arXiv
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Implementation (work edition)
Mathematica 10 notebooks (comments in
German),
executable working versions (.nb), read only
(.pdf)
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